Inman News recently provided an interesting perspective of this dynamic by identifying a group of individuals whose efforts will have a significant impact over the next year. Over and above their remarkable personal, professional, and power profiles these individuals are distinguished by the fact that none are real estate industry insiders. None, with the exception of Mr. Yun, represent traditional real estate brokerage players. All are positioned to move the industry in new directions.
Who are these folks and how might they impact the real estate industry in mid 2009 and beyond?
Errol Samuelson is the current President of REALTOR.com. He and his technical expertise are at the helm when the very future of REALTOR.com is in question. Unfortunately the real challenge for REALTOR.com is probably not technical in nature but rather its inability to build an affinity relationship with the REALTOR® community sufficient to drive loyalty and patronage for its technology. Living with the ghosts of its Homestore origins it can’t seem to find a place in the REALTOR® business life. With the current national market downturn, the pressures building for a national
Sheila Bair is Chairwoman of the FDIC. Her initial role will be to continue efforts to stem the rising flow of foreclosures through “work out” programs. However, ultimately she will play an even more powerful role by influencing the new laws, rules, and regulations under which the mortgage industry will operate moving forward. Her work will do much to address issues of affordability, consumer confidence and access to credit in the markets of 2009 and 2110.
Lockhart Steele is the founder and publisher of Curbed.com. Curbed.com is a website that is all about how to use the Internet as a community/neighborhood real estate information and action center. Beginning in 2008 neighborhoods will become one of the most important forces in real estate. Curbed.com will use its recent infusion of new capital to expand its ability to galvanize neighborhood opinions and real estate knowledge to new markets.
Sam Zell is the soon to be CEO of the Tribune Media Company. Mr. Zell, himself a REALTOR® with decades of real estate development success, has accepted the challenge of redefining the relationship between real estate and newspapers. This at a time when the industry’s participation with classified advertising is at an all time low due to market levels and the rise of the Internet.
Kerry Killinger is the CEO of Washington Mutual, Inc. Mr. Killinger may well be either the last CEO of this traditional big time mortgage factory or the first CEO of a new generation of mortgage service units. Either way he is in a key position to impact how American consumers finance homes moving forward.
Andrew Cuomo is the New York State Attorney General. Over the past year he has brought an almost Law and Order like atmosphere to the current mortgage industry crisis. Mr. Cuomo seems to be of the mind that “someone” rather than something is to blame for the mortgage crisis and that “someone” ought to be punished. Starting with the appraisal community Cuomo has expanded his investigation to include both private (large mortgage companies) and quasi public (Freddie Mac) entities in a search that will, in all likelihood, at some point include an examination of the REALTOR® role.
Lawrence Yun is the current NAR Chief Economist. Mr. Yun, a really nice man, is caught in a classic professional dilemma between the traditional role of the economist in a free enterprise environment and the role of an economist who is part of a trade association communications program. He alone may have the power to tame the current media assault on the industry. He may also have to account for the path taken by his predecessor.
Ben Bernanke is the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Perhaps the most powerful individual on the Inman list, Mr. Bernanke will be responsible for positioning the Fed (and millions of potential real estate buyers and sellers) between the benefits of more open credit and the perils of inflation. He will have an immense impact upon the real estate marketplace.
Kurt Pfotenhauer is the recently named CEO of the American Land Title Association. He assumes power at a time when the title industry is under a tremendous amount of pressure to rehabilitate long standing business practices and industry relationships that many state regulators, consumer groups and even the GAO suggest are inappropriate and possibly illegal. The real estate market of 2009/2010 may see title services marketed under a whole new set of rules and relationships.
While the power position of any one of these players might be discounted, together they reflect the serious transition that is occurring within the practices and patterns of the traditional real estate business. Therein lies the message of this column and the only broker themes for 2008 that makes any sense: survival and surveillance. Over the next year brokers must not only concentrate on surviving the remaining months of the down market, but also focus on preparing their companies to conduct business and address competition in an environment that is far different from that which existed in November of 2005.
